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“What happens to the remaining three cases if Trump does not win? Can they still go ahead after the 2024 election?”
— Joseph Fernandes, Melbourne, Australia
Hi Joseph,
Yes, they can. If Donald Trump wins in November, the two federal cases are likely doomed, whether by getting them dismissed through a newly installed attorney general or even attempting a legally untested self-pardon. He couldn’t do that for his Georgia state election interference case, however, due to the lack of presidential power over state cases.
Your question highlights the stakes of the election for Trump personally, on top of the obvious stakes for the country. If he wins, two of the most serious cases against him could vanish, and the state case could be delayed while he’s in office. If he loses, then instead of having one of the most powerful jobs in the world, he’d practically become a professional criminal defendant, fighting three separate cases carrying possible prison time upon conviction.
It’s quite the split screen for the 78-year-old, who faces sentencing for the fourth case on July 11 in New York state court.
But while a Trump loss would put him closer to the situation of a “normal” criminal defendant, the three remaining cases have different issues lurking within them.
In the federal election interference case in Washington, we’re still waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on his immunity claim, which could complicate the case. The justices are also still due to rule on a separate appeal from a Jan. 6 defendant that could affect Trump’s case, too. Those high court rulings may require further litigation at the trial court level before that one can go forward. But if Trump loses the election, the case should be able to proceed in a way that presents a serious prosecution against the defendant over his alleged 2020 election subversion. It would likely be the next one to go to trial.
And while the classified documents case is among the two federal cases that could disappear if Trump wins, it’s still on shaky ground if Trump loses. The presiding judge in that Florida case, Aileen Cannon, is unpredictable. How she would handle a trial against Trump will loom over the case until a hypothetical jury reaches a verdict. It’s probably the most straightforward legal case against Trump on paper, so he has lucked out to date with his appointee Cannon drawn as his judge.
The Georgia case is also a question mark for reasons separate from the forthcoming election. That one is tied up on a pretrial appeal, where the defense wants to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and her office from prosecuting the case. If Willis and her office are booted, that will require reassignment to another office or prosecutor, which will at least add further delay.
Even if the case stays with Willis, it’s complex, with 15 defendants remaining on the original 19-defendant indictment. A 15-defendant trial is unlikely. I would expect more guilty pleas from other defendants if and when the case moves toward trial, but when such a trial would happen against Trump himself is unclear. Yet, if he wins the 2024 election, it will likely be the only criminal case left against him.
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